Complete only these tasks before our first class:

* Watch this video: Welcome!
* How to be a student in a flipped classroom (about 11 minutes)
* Read the Carthage Mask and Vaccination Policy.
* Read this information on our text that you should have received in an email.

You do not need to do an of the assignments outside of this box until after our first class.

9/7: In-Person Learning Today! Live Stream Links Are On the Help Page - FINALIZED

The exercises assigned today are due before class begins on Thursday. There is nothing to turn in for reading assignments, but there could be a quiz or writing assignment over that material. Online assignments are submitted electronically, and I anticipate that all of our assignments will be online.

You are encouraged to use my office hours (Zoom or in person) for help hours on the homework. However, you may not ask questions over homework on the day that the assignment is due.

Do NOT assume that any assignment beyond today's is correct! I often change them the day of class.

The following exercises are due before 9:50 am on 9/9.

Reading Assignment

* Read the course introduction (syllabus) on Schoology, also available on the Help Page. This document contains information that you may need to know. Some of it could appear on a quiz.
* Read the Carthage Academic Honesty Guidelines. There is a link at the top of this page.
* Read this page on homework expectations.
* Read Section A.1 in this handout on set theory notation.

Activities You Need to Do Before Class on Thursday.

* Take this brief background survey. (Yes, this is required, and you will receive credit for doing it!) You will need to log in to your Carthage account.
* Check the blog (see the link on the left side of this page) for updates. You should check the blog every day. I will provide homework hints, comments on how our class went, and more!

Required Videos to View Before Our Next Class, Which Meets on Thursday

Introductory Videos - you may wish to jot down a few notes.
* Using the Web Page (for those who missed class - the structure has changed a bit but the changes are easy to spot.)
* Office hours - Zoom and in-person

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) The Multiplication Rule
(2) Indistinguishable Items
(3) Story Proofs
(4) Combinations
(5) The Binomial Theorem

* While you are watching the videos or immediately after watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

* The assignment over this material is officially assigned on Thursday, but you should start it now to see if you have questions. I will open class by taking questions over the videos.

Optional Material

* Sign up for your free MAA membership at this link.

Today's Video Quiz for Class Use. Take the quiz at the link above.

9/9: In-person learning today! - FINALIZED

You are encouraged to use my office hours (Zoom or in person) for help hours on the homework. However, you may not ask questions over homework on the day that the assignment is due.

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 9/16.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 1.1-1.4 in BH. You need to read example 1.4.18, but you may stop there. We will go over Examples 1.4.19 and 1.4.20 in class. Pay particular attention to the methods used to solve the problems in the examples.
* Read the review of set notation on the Help Page. You will need the user name and password to read this document.

Homework

* Do exercises 2, 6, 10 from Chapter 1 of BH (Section 1.9).
* Prove algebraically that \({n \choose j} = {{n-1} \choose j} + {{n-1} \choose {j - 1}}\).

Required Videos to View Before Class on 9/14.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) The General Definition of Probability
(2) Inclusion-Exclusion
(3) Numbered Cards and Baseball Hats

* While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz For Class Use. Take the quiz at the link above.

9/14: In-Person Learning Today! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 9/21.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 1.5-1.7 in BH

Homework

* Do problems 9, 22, 32, 36 FROM Chapter 1 of BH (Section 1.9).
* Following up on 32, find the probability of a full house, which is 3 of one denomination and 2 of another denomination - for example, 3 Kings and two 5's or three 4's and two 8's. Explain why the answer is not \(\frac{{{13} \choose 2} {4 \choose 3} {4 \choose 2}}{{{52} \choose 5}}\).

Required Videos to View Before Class on 9/16.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) No new videos. Re-watch any vidoes that you need to review, particularly those assigned on Thursday of last week.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz - There wasn't one!

9/16: In-Person Learning Today! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 9/23.

Reading Assignment

* Review Chapter 1, Sections 1.5-1.7.

Homework

* Do the exercises on this page.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 9/21.

* Instead of watching videos, do at least one of the following so you are ready to write code in class on Tuesday. Doing more than one could be beneficial. We might also use Excel or another spreadsheet to solve some problems.
(1) Install Mathematica on your computer. Directions are here: https://www.carthage.edu/library/library-services/mathematica/
(2) Activate your Mathematica Online account through user.wolfram.com.
(3) Install R Studio on your computer. Here are instructions, thanks to Dr. Wheeler!
(4) Have some reasonable computer language (Python, C++, etc) installed on your computer.

* We also have Mathematica installed on the computers in the classroom, just in case none of these works for you. (I know there have been some problems with Mathematica permissions, so you might not be able to install Mathematica right now.)

* Bring your computer to class on Tuesday, or use one of the computers in class.

Optional Material

* None.

Today's Video Quiz - None today.

9/21: In-Person Class Today! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 9/28.

Reading Assignment

* Read Section 1.8 in BH. While you do not have to use R as your language of choice, you should be ready to do computer simulations.
* Do the computations shown in the book in R if that's your language. If you're using Mathematica, I'll post a file here that you can download and examine.

Homework

* Do the First Coding Assignment on Schoology.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 9/23.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Vandermonde's Identity
(2) Pairing Baseball Teams
(3) A Technique for Card Dealing Problems

There is one question on the quiz below that deals with coding. You may want to have your coding notes handy.

* While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

9/23: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 9/30.

Reading Assignment

* Review Sections 1.1-1.7

Homework

* Do exercises 13, 34, 49, 50, 53 from Chapter 1 of BH (Section 1.9).

Required Videos to View Before Class on 9/28.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) The Definition of Conditional Probabiility
(2) Drawing Poker Chips (Note that \(W_1\) = white first got cut off the top of the screen - sorry about that!)
(3) Poker Chips and Conditional Probability
(4) Different Information Leads to Different Probabilities
(5) Strange Information is Still Information

* While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

9/28: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 10/7.

Reading Assignment

* Read sections 2.1 and 2.2 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 9/30.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Bayes' Rule
(2) Total Probability
(3) Fair and Weighted Dice
(4) Rare Diseases and Trees
(5) Rare Diseases and Tables
(6) Rare Diseases and Bayes' Rule

While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

9/30: In-Person Instruction! We will have a 30 minute class on the new material, then devote the rest of the class time for exam review. We have an exam on Tuesday! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 10/12.

Reading Assignment

* Read Section 2.3 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 10/7.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Rolling the Die Again
(2) Definition of Independence
(3) Getting a Second Test

* While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

10/5: Exam 1. The exam will cover the material we discussed in class from 9/7-9/28. No homework is due today. You will have the entire class period to take the exam. Everyone who is not registered as fully remote through the Registrar's Office or is quarantined because of the COVID are expected to be in class to take the exam. The exam will be open book, open notes, and open marksnavely.us, and you may need to use R or Mathematica. Bring your computer to class.

This is an exam, and as such you should not do anything that you would not do if I was looking over your shoulder. You may use anything on my website www.marksnavely.us, including the text and the homework solutions. However, do not stray from my website!

You are not permitted to communicate with any human being by any means, including but not limited to, talking, phone conversations, text messages, email messages, hand signals, smoke signals, semaphore, Morse code, Norse code (used to communicate with Vikings), social media, antisocial media, or any other means that I've omitted. You are not permitted to use any internet resource not listed above. You are not permitted to use any text other than mine, any app on your phone, any app that's not on your phone, Google, WolframAlpha, or any other print or internet resource that I've omitted.

10/7: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 10/14.

Reading Assignment

* Skim Sections 2.4, 2.5, and 2.6 in BH. Get the big concepts, not all of the details.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 10/12.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Simpson's Paradox

* While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* A video on today's topic.

* Interested in teaching? This could be a great opportunity!

Today's Video Quiz

10/12: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 10/19.

Reading Assignment

* Read the rest of Chapter 2.
* Work through the child gender simulation in either R or Mathematica.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 10/14.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Random Variables
(2) Probability Mass Functions
(3) Cumulative Distribution Functions
(4) Eating A Few Jelly Beans
(5) Eating Lot of Jelly Beans

* While you are watching the videos, take this video quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

10/14: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 10/21.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 3.1, 3.2, and 3.6 in BH, ignoring any references in 3.6 to distributions we haven't discussed yet, like the binomial distribution.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 10/19.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) The Song I Played Last Class (you don't need to watch this again unless you want to do so.)
(2) Bernoulli Trials
(3) The Binomial Distribution
(4) Two Examples
(5) Some Computer Help
(6) Two More Examples

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None.

Today's Video Quiz

10/19: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 10/28 but I'll accept it on 11/2. I didn't update the due dates when I moved the exam.

Reading Assignment

* Read Section 3.3 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 10/21.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) The Hypergeometric Distribution
(2) The First Example
(3) Using Different Tags
(4) The Discrete Uniform Distribution
(5) Now Without Replacement

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

10/21: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/2.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 3.4 and 3.5 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 10/28.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Transformations of Random Variables
(2) Maximum of Two Random Variables, Independence of Two Random Variables
(3) Connections Between Distributions

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* Have a good break!

Today's Video Quiz

10/26: No Class - Fall Break!

10/28: In-Person Instruction Today. - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/9.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 3.7-3.9 in BH

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/2.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Two Examples
(2) Definition of Expected Value
(3) Expected Values and Transformations
(4) Linearity
(5) Expected Values for the Binomial and Hypergeometric

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None today.

Today's Video Quiz

11/2: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/11.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 4.1-4.2 and 4.5 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/9.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Useful Series
(2) The Geometric and First Success Distributions
(3) The Negative Binomial and rth Success Distributions
(4) Examples
(5) Completing the Puzzle

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

11/4: In-Person Instruction!

Exam 2. The exam will cover the material we discussed in class from 9/30-10/28. No homework is due today. You will have the entire class period to take the exam. Everyone who is not registered as fully remote through the Registrar's Office or is quarantined because of the COVID are expected to be in class to take the exam. The exam will be open book, open notes, and open marksnavely.us, and you may need to use R or Mathematica. Bring your computer to class.

This is an exam, and as such you should not do anything that you would not do if I was looking over your shoulder. You may use anything on my website www.marksnavely.us, including the text and the homework solutions. However, do not stray from my website!

You are not permitted to communicate with any human being by any means, including but not limited to, talking, phone conversations, text messages, email messages, hand signals, smoke signals, semaphore, Morse code, Force code (used to communicate with Jedi Knights), social media, antisocial media, or any other means that I've omitted. You are not permitted to use any internet resource that isn't listed above. You are not permitted to use any text other than mine, any app on your phone, any app that's not on your phone, Google, WolframAlpha, or any other print or internet resource that I've omitted.

11/9: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/16.

Reading Assignment

* Read Section 4.3 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/11.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Definition of Variance
(2) Variance of Named Distributions
(3) The Hypergeomatric and the Negative Binomial
(4) The Poisson Distribution (There is a typo in the notes in the video. \(E(X^2)=\lambda (1+\lambda)\). I've fixed this in the handout.)
(5) A Poisson Example
(6) A Bonus Example

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

11/11: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/18.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 4.6, 4.7 and 4.8 in BH

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/16.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) CDF and pdf for Continuous Random Variables
(2) Properties of a pdf and the Logistic distribution
(3) Two More Continuous Distributions
(4) Expected Value and Variance for a Continuous Random Variable
(5) Transformations of Continuous Random Variables

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None today.

Today's Video Quiz

11/16: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/23.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 5.1-5.3 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/18.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) The Exponential Distribution
(2) An Example, Part I
(3) An Example, Part II
(4) The Gamma Distribution
(5) Connections Between the Exponential, Gamma, and Poisson
(6) A Gamma Example

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

11/18: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 11/30.

Reading Assignment

* Read Sections 5.5 and 5.6 in BH.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/23.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Markov Chains and the Transition Matrix
(2) The Weather Example
(3) Matrix Multiplication
(4) Different Starting States
(5) Hello Kitty!

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* A joke you'll understand!

Today's Video Quiz

11/23: In-Person Instruction Today! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 12/2.

Reading Assignment

* Read Section 11.1 in BH. You can skip the parts about Marginal distributions.

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 11/30.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Recurrent and Transient States
(2) Irreducible and Reducible Markov Chains
(3) Periodic and Aperiodic States
(4) Stationary Distributions

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

11/25: No Class - Thanksgiving Break

11/30: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 12/7.

Reading Assignment

* Read Section 11.2 in BH.

* IF AT ALL POSSIBLE, COME TO CLASS ON TUESDAY!

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 12/2.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Absorbing Markov Chains
(2) Time Until Absorbtion
(3) Using a Matrix
(4) More Examples
(5) One Useful Command

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* This isn't reall optional, but if you haven't downloaded Mathematica, you need to create an account on user.wolfram.com so you can use Mathematica online.

Today's Video Quiz

12/2: In-Person Instruction! - FINALIZED

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 12/9.

Reading Assignment

* Read this handout.

* IF AT ALL POSSIBLE, COME TO CLASS ON TUESDAY!

Homework

* Do these exercises.

Required Videos to View Before Class on 12/7.

* With the handout available either printed or online, watch these videos. If you have access to a printer, print a copy of the handout to use while watching the videos. If you do not have access to a printer, copy the handouts onto a piece of paper to use while watching the videos.
(1) Introduction to the Game Simulator

* While you are watching the videos, take this quiz. This will count as a quiz. After you take the quiz, the answers should appear on the screen. You should also receive an email confirmation so you can check your answers.

Optional Material

* None

Today's Video Quiz

12/7: In-Person Instruction. IF AT ALL POSSIBLE, COME TO CLASS TODAY! - FINALIZED.

The Reading and Homework assigned today are due 12/14.

Reading Assignment

* No reading assignment.

Homework

* Be prepared to share the results of your investigation with the class on Thursday.

12/9: In-Person Instruction. - FINALIZED

You will present your findings to the class, after which I will take questions over the material on the third exam.

12/14: Study Day

12/15: Final Exams

12/16: Final Exams - Our last exam is from 10:30-12:30 today.

The Song I Would Have Played if We Had a Live Stream Today

* Our third exam is today from 10:30-12:30. The exam will cover the material we discussed in class from 10/19 through the end of the course. This includes all named distributions (discrete and continuous) and Markov Chains. The exam is open book, open notes, and open marksnavely.us, and you may need to use R or Mathematica. Bring your computer to class.

You are not permitted to communicate with any human being by any means, including but not limited to, talking, phone conversations, text messages, email messages, hand signals, smoke signals, semaphore, Morse code, Horse code (used to communicate with equestrians), social media, antisocial media, or any other means that I've omitted. You may not use any internet resource except those mentioned above.

* Take the exam. Then have a great break!

12/17: Final Exams